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Cider fermentation question

I'm making a batch of hard apple cider following the instructions provided by SE for a cheap fast cider.

http://www.seriouseats.com/2009/11/making-cheap-hard-cider-from-scratch.html

So I followed all the steps, but how do I know if the stuff is fermenting correctly?
This morning my airlock has all the water in the right tube and none in the left hand side, does that mean gas is passing through it correctly?

I haven't seen any bubbles which I thought I was supposed to. It does bubble slightly at the top of the liquid if I shake the jar up a bit. Is the airlock OK with all the water on one side?

Also it's sitting on my counter, should I be keeping it warm or just let it sit?

Thanks for any help!

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